The progress of climate change is visible in the Arctic and while rising temperatures have increased international economic and military interest in the region, its sister continent Antarctica remains still of lesser but rising interest. Johan Rockström mentions in his interview that Antarctica’s ice sheet melting has accelerated, and even in some locations to the point of no return.
Antarctica has unique conditions; 99% of its surface is covered with thick ice and less than 0,50% of its surface is exposed land, it is the windiest and coldest continent on Earth with limited sunlight and dry conditions. Its biodiversity and specific ecosystem are still largely being researched and understood better, but it hosts bird and penguin species, whales, fungi, plants as well as different invertebrates, such as Antarctic krill, that are mostly located on the coastal areas or oceans.
Importance of the Antarctic for Climate
Antarctica plays an important role as a heat sink but also impacts ocean currents. Climate change and human activity, despite their remoteness, are visible in the continent. Ice sheets in Antarctica are already melting, and it is likely that most of the future sea-level rise will result from the melting of the Antarctic ice sheet. If the Antarctic ice sheet were to fully melt, it would raise the sea level by 60 meters with severe global impacts. This has been challenging to research fully, however, as the area is vast and there is not enough data to understand how the delicate ecosystem of the Antarctic functions.
Melting of the ice sheets further impacts the ecosystem; a reduction in the algae has harmed the Antarctic krill population which feeds on it, in turn leading to reductions in the population of penguins, birds and other sea life which feed on the krill. Countermeasures that would help to both reduce the melting of ice sheets and biodiversity loss would be to have more ambitious greenhouse gas reductions, higher investment in climate science to understand the impact of Antarctica on climate change, as well as tighten the global rules.
Strategic Interests in Antarctica
The Antarctic has always been a scientifically and economically important place, in which interest has grown during recent years. It is not only the untouched ecosystem that draws scientists to Antarctica, but equally the discovery of raw materials. Antimony, chromium, copper, gold, lead, molybdenum, tin, uranium, zinc, coal, iron, gold, platinum, diamonds, and oil attract nations in a world of reducing resources. Mining any of these raw materials is however still expensive compared to the economic gain, so the attempts have so far remained at the scientific exploration level. In the 1970s, there was a global interest in petroleum, and countries such as Japan, United States, Germany and France did detailed resource mapping in the area.
Similarly, fishing in the area has increased.
The Antarctic continent is currently being used for peaceful and scientific purposes, as agreed in the Antarctic Treaty, which was enacted in 196i to govern the Antarctic region. Currently, it has 29 consultative parties and 25 non-consultative parties [6]. The Madrid Protocol also entered into force in 1998, banning mining and stating that all activities relating to mineral resources are allowed only for scientific purposes. The EU influences the region through its 27 Member States and inter alia, establishing new marine parks with the support of other nations, now covering the area of 3 million km2.
The COVID-19 pandemic and changing global order have impacted the Antarctic region. While countries are prioritizing their funding to combat the COVID-19 pandemic, funding scientific activities that are important for understanding rising sea levels and climate change impacts have been cut by most countries. This has opened an opportunity for actors such as Russia and China to fight for their access to fishing, mining, and oil reserves in the region. Though the Antarctic Treaty was established to promote the peaceful use of the continent and scientific study, there is no technical ruling government or permanent human settlement, the governance of the continent is still slightly unclear. For example, China has four operable scientific stations in Antarctica, the fifth one will be operational next year. China, Russia and South Korea have also objected to establishing the marine protected area expansion in the Ross Sea, which would limit their fishing area. The population of Antarctic krill has significantly reduced over the last years and China is using krill also for its oil.
Recommendations
The Antarctic Treaty will be open for modification in 2048 when there is potential to expand rights on mining and oil drilling. Russia announced last year that it had started seismic surveys to identify areas for offshore oil and gas. Indeed, considering the developments in the Arctic, the situation seems similar to Antarctica's in what it was in the Arctic 10 years ago. Also with reducing energy and resource reserves, the Antarctic does provide untouched reserves.
The EU is mostly engaged in Antarctica through the Commission for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources (CCAMLR) and is mostly focused on Marine Protected Areas through its MS. However, the EU should be more active in the region and project in the future. It should promote sustainable management of the region and, for example, suggest leaving Antarctica as a protected area as well as banning mining, overfishing, and resource extraction. Given Antarctica’s significance for climate change and sea-level rise, it is better to first understand the situation well than to create irreversible damage.
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