The midterm elections which took place in Mexico on June 6 were nothing short of historic. Typically, midterm elections generate substantially less interest than presidential ones; yet they are pivotal in forming the country's political composition – and its importance should not be overlooked.
Indeed, it was a midterm election that configured the new political establishment of 21st century Mexico: it was not Vicentes Fox’s presidential victory of 2000 that radically metamorphosed Mexican politics, but rather the 1997 midterms that usurped the hegemonic PRI (Institutional Revolutionary Party) party and established a pluralistic regime in the Chamber of Deputies for the first time. Consequently, Mexico transitioned from an authoritarian regime – although perhaps imperfect and even violent – to a real plural political arena where negotiation dictated policymaking.
This year's elections resembled a similar narrative. On the one hand, the Chamber of Deputies, along with many governorships and thousands of other elected posts, would be revamped. On the other hand, the immediate survival of the Mexican democratic institutions and counterweights were at stake.
Mexico's Biggest Midterm Election
This year's elections were the biggest midterms in the country's history. Over 21 thousand seats were up for elections, a record number of million people voted for a midterm election - 93 million, or 52% of the electorate - and for the first time in Mexico’s history, more women were registered to vote than men, signifying the role of women in modern politics.
Despite the positive balance, there were some notably violent incidents throughout the country. Among the ‘targeted incidents’ was the murder of 70 people linked to the electoral process, out of which 28 were candidates. Though organised crime and violence attempted to get a grip of the elections, it was ultimately the will of the citizens and its institutions that guaranteed a clean election.
Former Mexican Ambassador Garcia Blanco observed that with the exception of ‘some targeted incidents, the election day passed peacefully, despite the climate of political polarisation that exists’ adding that ‘both the logistics implemented by the National Electoral Institute (INE), as well as the broad participation of citizens and international observers, guaranteed its transparency.’
The Results of Mexico’s Midterm Elections
The President's party, MORENA (the National Regeneration Movement Party), further consolidated itself as a significant political power in Mexico. Notwithstanding, the party suffered two key losses: the capital, and a significant number of deputies (59, or roughly 23% of their seats). In contrast, the opposition, PAN-PRI-PRD (The ‘Va por Mexico’ Coalition), made essential gains at the Chamber of Deputies. However, their success was slightly dampened with the loss of 11 governor races. Though MORENA retains a simple majority in Congress and has re-established itself as the leading political force in Mexico; there is a glimmer of hope for the opposition.
Though MORENA and its allies have managed to retain its absolute majority in Congress, it lost 50 seats at the Chamber of Deputies and is thus unable to achieve a super majority, even in a coalition his with allies: the Green Party, the Workers’ Party (PT for its initials in Spanish) and the Solidary Encounter Party (PES for its initials in Spanish). Though the opposition has finally presented a challenge to the status quo by presenting the electorate with a viable political project to contrast MORENA, one cannot deny the prevalence of Lopez Obrador: in a devastating year marred by the economic and public health crises brought about by the pandemic that has devastated governments and ruling parties across the world, MORENA resisted and has cemented itself once again as the leading political force in Mexico.
Though Lopez Obrador lost his grip in Congress, his party had an impressive performance at the state governor races. Out of 15 races, MORENA and its allies won 11 of them, turning to debunk the PRI's 90-year-old hegemony as the primary political force at the state level. Moreover, a new political actor entered the state-level political scene: Movimiento Ciudadano (MC). MC took hold of Nuevo Leon, a critical economic state of the country, and one where Lopez Obrador faces significant backlash.
The most notable blow for MORENA was Mexico City, the bastion of the Mexican left. Once belonging to the leftist PRD with Lopez Obrador as its mayor, in 2018 it passed to the control of MORENA under Claudia Sheinbaum. In this election, however, things changed: for the first time since borough elections were held in Mexico City in 2000, a non-leftist party won the majority of the capital of the 16 boroughs. This can be explained by two main factors: a socio-economic gap and Line 12 of the Mexico City Metro tragedy. The city is split into two, with the western, more socio-economic areas of Mexico voting for the opposition and the poorer boroughs voting for MORENA. Moreover, the collapse of a train wagon on May 3rd that left 26 people dead was a major political setback for MORENA in the city.
The Public Image of López Obrador’s MORENA
MORENA's ambitions to reach the absolute majority in the Chamber of Deputies has been highly contested. If achieved, President López Obrador and his allies would have been able to single-handedly approve the budget, pass constitutional amendments, and appoint counsellors of the National Electoral Institute without needing to negotiate with the other side of the aisle.
Additionally, the constant provocation on behalf of President López Obrador has been at the centre of the midterm elections— not only because this election is an indicator that evaluates his term, but also because of the President’s meddling in the campaigns. The President has repeatedly attacked the electoral referee (the INE) as well as Mexico's autonomous institutions that serve as a balance to the power of the Executive and that of his political party.
In April, when the INE suspended the highly controversial MORENA candidate, Félix Salgado, on the basis of financial irregularities and multiple sexual harassment claims, the President labelled the actions as ‘an attempt against democracy’. The President, despite his institutional role and constitutional obligation to not interfere in the elections, has continued to publicly confront the INE. What’s becoming increasingly clear is the scope of ‘Lopez Obradurismo’ as a political movement in contemporary Mexico.
The New MORENA Hegemony: The Fourth Transformation of Mexico
President López Obrador's previous victory in the 2018 presidential elections created an unprecedentedly new political system in Mexico: a new hegemony led by MORENA and their allies, instating the first left-wing democratic government in the country's history.
The election ensured that MORENA controlled the Executive, the Chamber of Deputies with a supermajority (in conjunction with their allies) and the Senate. This means that López Obrador has strong support in the Legislative Power, which allows for the implementation of his full executive power and with a wide margin of manoeuvre to develop its agenda, without any restrictions or complex negotiations with the opposition parties.
Although MORENA did not have an absolute majority on its own back in 2018, it achieved one through a controversial political tactic known as ‘chapulineo’ – where legislators from coalition partners can transfer deputies between each other without any legal or political consequences. This overrepresentation experienced in the Chamber of Deputies has led to the destruction of the traditional Mexican political regime of the last three decades, consisting of the traditional parties – the PRI, PAN and PRD. Once the main points of reference within the political establishment, these parties have been rendered as minority groups in Congress subject to the will of the President. Without political counterweights, MORENA has been on a warpath for the last two years to shake Mexico's political and economic foundations.
Such determination to reform emanates from what the President calls ‘neoliberal policies’ - a set of liberal economic and social policies implemented before his own administration - which he blames for Mexico’s poor economic development. This war on ‘neoliberalism’ includes energy reform, fiscal reform, and the scrapping of autonomous bodies to be replaced by a strong opposition that can serve as a counterweight. The President's so-called Fourth Transformation of Mexico needs an overwhelming majority at the Chamber of Deputies to ensure that it is politically viable.
Notwithstanding, this Fourth Transformation poses a danger to the checks and balances of the country - centralising power on the Executive, openly defying court rulings as well as attacking the electoral referee have also become synonyms of his revolution. Anyone who disagrees with his policies is branded a neoliberal traitor. As noted by Dr Pamela K. Starr, Lopez Obrador will aim to implement his policies ‘even if it means weakening democratic processes in Mexico’.
Source: London School of Economics, Rodrigo Aguilera,
Source: London School of Economics, Rodrigo Aguilera,
Source: London School of Economics, Rodrigo Aguilera,
What Are the Ways Forward?
Overall, Mexico was strengthened by these elections: mostly clean elections took place and the autonomous democratic institutions survived the pressure of the Executive. With this new Congress, Mexicans can be assured that policies will be debated by the various political forces of the country before being implemented. Nevertheless, the President’s hegemony over the state’s institutions has been weakened but not completely gone.
Though the election showcased the political pluralism that exists and the strength of democratic institutions, Mexico must think about how it can redesign the parameters of policy making. The elections have politically polarised Mexico: the ruling party is still determined to pursue its policies at the expense of the country’s democratic institutions, and market forces acted and strengthened a more unequal development model, especially in the South where the situation demands a thorough restructuring.
Since the election of the present administration in 2018, the confrontation between civil society and the government has been on the rise. The President of the Republic's criticisms of the work of social organisations are recurrent. They have occupied several spaces in his morning conferences where they have been accused of being illegal and corrupt. In June, the government passed a law where administrators and directors of civil associations are now categorised as public servants so that they may be subject to criminal responsibility for crimes of corruption.
Now that the opposition is growing, civil society should seek an active role in the fight against corruption and the dismantling of democratic institutions. Civil society should ensure that autonomous institutions remain in place - guarantee transparency of information, demand that the checks and balances that took Mexico over a century to build remain in place, and reject any centralisation of power in the hands of the executive branch. With a viable political opposition now in place, Mexicans have once again institutional pathways to ensure its democracy remains. It’s that, or submission to the fourth transformation.
However, although López Obrador and his grip on the Mexican establishment remains relevant, his hegemony over the Mexican political apparatus is slipping. This election has been a reminder that in democracies, no territory is tied to a single political force perpetually. It is also noteworthy that the unlikely coalition of the PRI-PAN-PRD, founded on a communal hatred of MORENA rather than similar political ideologies, saved political pluralism in Mexico. Had it not been for such an alliance, today's narrative would be about MORENA's overwhelming majority in all corners of the country. The unlikeliness of this alliance is unique: historically the three traditional parties of Mexico, eternal enemies (os so it seemed), from all over the political spectrum, have diluted their ideological differences in favour of a pragmatist, unified approach against MORENA. This new political pluralism will help counter the President's almost unilateral policies regarding fiscal reform, immigration, and security.
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