There is little doubt that if Joe Biden wins the election, his foreign policy stance will look markedly different from Trump’s. After all, the presidential race has seen two campaigns that stood diametrically opposed on a wide range of issues – foreign policy being amongst them. Whether it is the promise of fixing damaged transatlantic relations, restoring international credibility or reversing Trump’s decisions regarding the US withdrawal from the WHO, a Biden administration will aim to make significant changes to US foreign policy.
Notwithstanding the blatantly obvious dissimilarities, however, Biden’s team may ultimately feel impelled to adopt some foreign policy decisions of the incumbent – not because of their merit – but rather because of political calculations. Expectations of bipartisan alignment on countering China and upholding the pressure on NATO allies to increase spending are but two examples of potential foreign policy convergences. With official election results being eagerly awaited across the world, Biden would likely put an end to Trump’s ‘America First’ credo, while trying to strike a fine balance between self-inflicted international isolation and the possible resumption of global leadership. After all, Biden knows all too well: every time America withdraws, China wins.
Transatlantic relations heading for a rapprochement?
If we were to encapsulate Biden’s initial thoughts in the event of his election, these would be: ‘Allies matter’ and ‘America is back’. Indeed, while the Trump administration has weakened US posture on the world stage by criticising allies, withdrawing from international institutions and cutting foreign assistance programmes; Biden is projected to reverse all the above-mentioned. Based on his statement that Trump’s withdrawal from treaties and his denigration of alliances has 'bankrupted America’s word in the world', a revitalisation of US alliances will be the most obvious policy trajectory.
To summarise the current status of transatlantic relations from the scope of the US, one needs to examine the current status of the US in NATO and the US diplomatic ties with Turkey, as well as Biden’s willingness to deploy troops in Europe. Starting with the latter, many European leaders will evoke Russian assertiveness to demand stronger military commitments (mainly from the US). Biden has vowed to take a more stringent stance on Russia and may decide to deploy and reinforce troop levels in Eastern Europe. Meanwhile, he will likely continue to exert pressure on NATO allies for their defence spending, without the bravado of Trump.
The US’s stance on Turkish revisionism in the Eastern Mediterranean on the other hand is shrouded in ambiguity as current US-Turkey ties hang by a thread and Biden’s policy path is still unknown. On the one hand, Turkey’s actions contradict with key objectives of the Biden administration and will likely cause relations to deteriorate further. Despite that, US-Turkey ties are not irreparable, as Biden is projected to follow a hardline policy towards Russia that needs Turkey, establishing it as a cornerstone of his foreign policy. While additional Turkish actions may hinder these developments, Biden may choose to shift from his pre-election statements and accommodate Turkey’s demands in the Eastern Mediterranean. Nevertheless, this will not exist without trade-offs from the Turkish side.
In conclusion, the Biden administration cannot immediately return transatlantic relations to their pre-Trump state. However, Europe and the US will achieve a broader alignment on policies, such as China, the protection of human rights standards and multilateral cooperation, especially in NATO. Therefore, it is in the hands of European leaders to remind Biden that Europe has transformed into an equal and vital US partner.
Biden and Trump’s foreign policy in the Middle East
The immediate consequences of a potential Biden victory for US foreign policy towards the Middle East are manifold. Changes in policy on Iran and Egypt as well as a more critical rhetoric on the respect for human rights seem probable. On some issues, a Biden administration may, however, have less of an immediate effect than anticipated.
A fait accompli ? The practical realities of US-Israeli relations
Albeit its norm-shattering departure from political conventions, Trump’s administration has been thoroughly consistent in its support for Israel throughout the last four years – cementing it as a cornerstone of the incumbent’s foreign policy in the Middle East. Some Trump-era decisions will thus be tough to jettison. In particular, the recognition of Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights and Jerusalem – facilitated by the US Embassy’s move away from Tel Aviv – is likely to be viewed as a fait accompli, for it would require enormous political will and capital to be reversed. Coupled with the fact that the US Congress wields significant power on the issue, a complete recovery towards the status quo ante seemingly defies the practical realities of US-Israeli relations.
In a similar vein to Trump, US-Israeli ties under Biden will remain strong. The recent warming of relations between Israel and some Arab nations was praised by Biden and could present an opportunity to re-engage Palestine in negotiations towards a solution to their long-standing conflict. Bearing in mind Vice President Biden’s public support for a two-state solution, he is also unlikely going to overturn actions taken by the Trump administration given that a renewed policy shift may frustrate requisites for any future diplomatic track.
Afghanistan
Trump has for long vowed to wind down military commitments in Afghanistan as part of a broader push to bring the ‘endless wars’ to a close. Biden’s advisers, too, have said that he will want to massively reduce the US troop presence in Afghanistan. Cognisant of Biden’s deep-seated scepticism towards a war he has deemed unwinnable, a Biden administration will possibly continue negotiations with the Taliban in order to make good on its political promise. Asked about the possibility of maintaining office in the case of a presidential transition, Zalmay Khalilzad, the US Special Envoy for Afghanistan, said it would be premature to discuss the idea. In an effort to keep diplomatic channels open, Biden may, however, ask Khalilzad to maintain his current post.
Syria
On substance, Biden’s advisers also appear willing to maintain some Trump-era policies on Syria. Whether it is about reducing the US military presence to a small ground force in north-eastern Syria, providing support to UN-led negotiation efforts or upholding sanctions against Damascus, Trump and Biden seem to converge. Given the strategic realities on the ground and growing bipartisan calls for a US disengagement in the Middle East, Biden thus appears likely to maintain a similar approach - even if their respective opinions on the reason to keep a force presence differ.
A new US policy on Africa?
In order to succeed, Joe Biden needs a plan that starts at home, but looks abroad. Namely, Biden has to allow domestic priorities to guide his foreign policy. While it is currently dominated by the management of COVID-19, it also prominently features the conduct towards African-American communities and their stigmatisation in the wake of George Floyd’s death. This functions as a pretext for a more comprehensive policy under a Biden-Harris Administration, in order to revamp relations with African countries in light of the increasing Russian and Chinese influence.
During the previous administration, Trump attempted to foster healthcare and economic development, while also mobilising a vast number of drones to contain terrorist networks in the Sahel and Somalia, competing with China over economic and political influence. Even though regional US policy may not diverge entirely from Trump’s policy lines, Biden will introduce some new elements.
Among these, the most prominent is that he will not view specific African countries as a collection of strategic partners, but as a continent. However, to rekindle respect for the African relations, he needs to concede in the financing of AU peacekeeping operations by the UN Security Council, something that was blocked by the Trump administration in 2018. In such a case, this will allow Biden to demonstrate his strong commitment to reset US policy on Africa and restore America’s moral authority on the continent. Nevertheless, this reset will not skyrocket relations into new and unprecedented heights but rather reinvigorate them to the level on which they were during the Obama administration.
The way forward for Biden’s foreign policy
Unquestionably, during his four years in office President Trump has reversed many aspects of US foreign and security policy, uprooting its previous focal point of international institutions and strong transatlantic ties. A putative Biden administration has thus vowed to restore US global engagement and moral leadership in the multilateral order it helped to build after the end of World War II. The two fundamentally different foreign policy visions notwithstanding, Biden’s advisers will have to come to terms with the fact that on some issues Trump’s policy decisions are worth considering. Whether Biden’s closest advisers like it or not, some of Trump’s foreign policy decisions are therefore here to stay.
Written by Lionel Ameis and Georgios Christos Kostaras, with contributions from Samir Chouman and Lil Oggesen
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